In traveling from Rome to Madrid, we’ve gone from the peeling to the gleaming, from the historic to the high-tech, from the solemn-sounding Foro Italico to the postmodern-sounding Magic Box. And what did we find when we got there? Marat Safin with his hands in the air and his racquet bouncing on the clay in front of him.
The center court in Madrid looks great from what I’ve seen over the last hour on TV, though my first thought was that the light and atmosphere reminded me of the light and atmosphere in the similarly high-tech main stadium in Hamburg, the tournament that was booted off the schedule this year to make room for this one—the new has been replaced by the even-more-new. Otherwise, it sounds like it’s been a shaky start in Madrid, with Spaniards Nadal and Robredo noting the site’s deficiencies: few practice courts, buildings still under construction, cramped locker rooms, a silly blue clay court, and an owner, Ion Tiriac, with delusions of world domination. Are these legitimate beefs, or the gripes of touchy pros who have had their routine disturbed for the week? We’ll find out in the days and years ahead. What’s interesting so far is that Nadal, who is dead set against Tiriac’s idea of Madrid becoming a “Fifth Slam,” is turning out to be just as much of a traditionalist as his predecessor at No. 1, Roger Federer. Why would either of them want the sport to do anything differently? It might mess with their mojo.
The biggest change is that Madrid is a dual-gender event, which, according to most of the sport’s observers, is the best way for each tour to maximize its appeal. That means we have two draws to break down: Both of them feature virtually every player of importance in limited, 56-person draws—it felt a little early in the week to see Safin play Tsonga today. But both of them will have their own very different storylines playing out.
The Men
First Quarter
It may sound illogical, but the men’s event is now less about who can beat Nadal than whether he can keep winning all the way through to another French Open. That would mean five straight tournament titles, more than he’s ever pulled off in one spring. While that kind of sustained dominance may seem unlikely, what’s even more unlikely is that he’ll lose a match on clay in the foreseeable future. We’ll see if Nadal’s early irritation with the facility and the surface has any affect on his attitude.
Nadal’s quarter is loaded with fellow Spaniards—Ferrer, Verdasco, Ferrero, Montanes, Granollers, Lopez, and Almagro. Plus, there’s Argentina’s Juan Monaco, who nearly reached the semis in Rome two weeks ago. Of those, Verdasco and Ferrer have the best chance of making some inroads against Nadal. I might say the same thing for Almagro, except that I haven’t seen him once during this clay season, which isn’t a good sign.
First-round match to watch: Almagro vs. Kohlschreiber—nice backhands.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Second Quarter
This time Novak Djokovic, after losing to Nadal in the Monte Carlo and Rome finals, has the honor of appearing in the same half as the top seed. He’s slotted to play the winner of Tsonga and Simon in the quarters. Before that, he doesn’t have a lot to worry about—Sam Querrey has already knocked out 15th seed Radek Stepanek. I’m curious to see whether either Tsonga or Simon will make some kind of move heading into Roland Garros. There’s an opportunity here for each of them.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Third Quarter
After a couple weeks of rest and practice, Andy Murray picks up his clay campaign again. He’s opposite his old friend Juan-Martin del Potro in this section; he’s near Tommy Robredo; and he begins with the perhaps tricky Simone Bolelli, an Italian who knows his way around a clay court. Will Murray’s momentum be slowed by his early loss in Rome? I don’t think so—he has the big picture in mind and seems to have learned not to sweat the day-to-day and point-to-point as much as he once did. On del Potro’s side is Stan Wawrinka, who could easily reach the quarters or beyond.
Dark horse: Tomas Berdych. He won his first event of 2009 last week, and he might face del Potro in the second round.
Semifinalist: Murray
Fourth Quarter
Roger Federer may not have it easy to start. He could get Igor Andreev, who had him on the ropes at the U.S. Open last year, in his opener, and then perhaps James Blake, who made an unexpected surge last week in reaching the Estoril final. On the other side are Roddick, Haas, Gulbis, and Davydenko. Why do I like Roddick’s chances, despite the fact that he’s coming off his honeymoon? He’ll already have nothing to lose on clay; now he’ll have even less than nothing. And despite most evidence to the contrary, he isn’t that bad on this stuff.
Semifinalist: Roddick
Semifinals: Nadal d. Djokovic; Murray d. Roddick
Final: Nadal d. Murray
The Women
First Quarter
After a spell of the routine and the random, there were suddenly a few sparks of drama floating around the WTA tour as this tournament got underway. They began when Serena Williams proclaimed herself, rather than the top-ranked Dinara Safina, the “real No. 1.” Safina countered by beating Serena’s sister on her way to a title in Rome. I was about to say that now we just need to cement the moment with a showdown between the two new rivals in Madrid, except, naturally, Serena retired in the first round.
Safina begins with a potentially tough first-rounder in Na Li. In the quarterfinals she might need to repeat her win in the Rome final over Svetlana Kuznetsova. Is Safina just another part-time No. 1, like Jankovic and Ivanovic, or is she ready to make it part of her identity? Last week it seemed to be the latter. We’ll learn more soon.
Semifinalist: Safina
Second Quarter
Jelena Jankovic has bottomed out and is slowly finding her way back to the surface. It hasn’t been a straight line upward, but she’s certainly in better spirits than she was in the U.S. in March. Hantuchova, Dulko, Petrova, Wozniak, Bartoli: Jankovic doesn’t have any insurmountable obstacles on her way to the semis. Let’s see if JJ is ready to take advantage of the opening and put herself back in the running for Roland Garros.
Semifinalist: Jankovic
Third Quarter
The new face of 2009, Victoria Azarenka, has kept up the good work through the spring, and there’s no obvious reason to think it won’t continue in Madrid—which, in WTA terms, means she’ll probably crash and burn in the first round. She’s scheduled to face Elena Dementieva in the quarters.
Semifinalist: Azarenka
Fourth Quarter
Serena and Venus were somehow been thrown into the same quarter—this is the problem with not caring about where you’re ranked, and, therefore, seeded. While Serena is out, Venus had a solid run to the semis in Rome.
Semifinalist: V. Williams
Semifinals: Azarenka d V. Williams; Safina d. Jankovic
Final: Safina d. Azarenka
I’ll be in Madrid this week, and at the tournament for a day or two. I will let you know how it is, and whether the tournament is running a little more smoothly from the fan’s perspective. Enjoy it back here. FYI: If you want to see the women, you’ll have to leave the Tennis Channel, which only carries the ATP feed, and hit TennisTV.com.
05/11/2009 | Permalink | Send to a Friend
